Expectancy theory has its roots clear back to the days of Hedonism and the time of English Utilitarians; however, it wasn't until this century that the theory was seriously studied.  In the 1930's a renewed emphasis in research of the subject was conducted by many theorists.  Those theorists included Tolman in 1932 and Lewin in 1935.  Lewin's theory was the basis of current thoughts on expectancy theory in that he developed the idea of "force" and "valence" to describe his application.  Others followed Lewin and developed similar theories, defined as, "The attractiveness of an outcome:  valance" and, "The likelihood that an action will lead to a certain outcome:  expectancy".  These theories all were developed into a quasi-mathematical model that states that the strength of a tendency to act in a certain way depends on the strength of an expectancy that the act will be followed by an outcome and on the value of the outcome to the actor.

Vroom
In 1964 Vroom developed another Expectancy model that was stated specifically for application to the working environment.  Vroom, like those who preceded him, developed a quasi-mathematical model as follows:

*(E x V) = Force

where: E = Expectancy
 V = Valence

Expectancy is defined as the momentary belief that the likelihood that an act will be followed by an outcome.  Valence is defined as the outcome's anticipated reward value and not the actual reward value.  This model states that valence and expectancy are both required to be present in order for a force to be produced that will be the motivation to attack a task.  The S indicates that the force is determined by the summation of all motivations toward a goal.  Vroom even applies values to the outcome of this model.  He states that if the result of the application, the outcome, is positive then it indicates that the person prefers to attain it.  If the outcome is negative then the person desires not to attain it, and finally, if the outcome is neutral then the person does not care whether it is attained or not.

Expectancy Theory Faults
Vroom and all expectancy theorists before him had one area of concern that was not clearly defined and that was the absolute distinction between what is an act and what is an outcome.  Vroom stated that the distinction is not always absolute, rather, actions are frequently described in terms of particular outcomes that they affect.  Vroom defines an action as a person's behavior, or the act of trying.  As long as the distinction between what an act is and what an outcome is, is not clear than the theory and the model are questionable.
 
 

A Proposed New Model (Lawler)
Since the development of Vroom's theory and model in 1964, developments and research have been made that lead to the development of a new model.  This new model builds on the developments in order to present the most up to date model for understanding motivation in organizations.  The model is based on four basic points concerning human motivation.  Those points are as follows:  (quoted directly from the article).

1.  People have preferences among the various outcomes that are potentially available to them.

2.  People have expectancies about the likelihood that an action (effort) on their part will lead to the intended behavior or performance.

3.  People have expectancies (instrumentalities) about the likelihood that certain outcomes will follow their behavior.

4.  In any situation, the actions a person chooses to take are determined by the expectancies and the preferences that person has at the time.

Lawler's model is not stated as a quasi-mathematical model,  rather it is shown as a path tree that diagrams effort, performance and outcomes.  The model is complete because it allows for outcomes that are not desired and it allows for performance that is other than intended.  The desired outcome can be attained by following the intended performance or it might be attained by an unintended performance.  Lawler's model also allows for outcomes that will be attained whether or not a particular performance is acted.

Lawler shows that there are a number of expectancies that are consequences of a certain effort or action since the successful task performance can lead to a number of outcomes, just as the unsuccessful task performance can lead to different outcomes.  This relationship can be stated as Performance to Outcome expectancy.  Performance to Outcome expectancies have a probability of happening between 0 and 1.  Just as there is an Effort to Performance expectancy that also has a probability of happening between 0 and 1.

If the Effort to Performance expectancy is perceived to be less than one then the person is figuring what outcomes are likely if performance in a certain way results in failure.  Overall the model presented by Lawler suggests that a person's motivation to perform in a certain way is influenced by his expectancies about performing in that way, about the expectancies about the outcomes associated with performing at that level, and the attractiveness of the outcomes involved.  The combination of all these factors result in the motivation to act in a certain way.  The model predicts that people will choose to behave in a manner that will produce the greatest of motivational force.
Management Application
In an organization a manager might wonder why he is not getting higher production out of his people.  He thinks that increased production with time should be as natural as instinct.  With the use of Lawler's model the manager should note that people are not naturally productive, nor are they naturally nonproductive.  People are driven by what motivates them to perform.  If a manager notes how to increase motivation with tangible rewards or incentives then people will choose the effort that leads to the proper performance and that performance will result in the desired outcome, it will be expected.

    The Expectancy Model
        (W.F. Maloney and J.M. McFillen)

Foremen in the construction industry play a vital role in worker output,  the quality of work, and the worker's sense of satisfaction and usefulness.  The expectancy model provides a way of appraising and analyzing the foreman's role in influencing construction worker motivation, performance,  and satisfaction.  As illustrated in the Expectancy Model a foreman can motivate by influencing the following two beliefs held by  workers:
 
1)  Worker Expectancy:  A worker believes that he can convert his expended effort into a specified  and  level of performance.  In order to motivate worker's effectively,  the foreman must match workers with the appropriate jobs.  If the foreman overmatches workers to their jobs ( over-skilled for the task at hand) then the worker will experience low levels of intrinsic rewards such as personal growth and a sense of accomplishment.  Undermatching, on the other hand, refers to assigning an under skilled worker to a complex task.   For example, asking an inexperienced worker to do some "simple" layout may be inappropriate.  This can cause a worker to have a muffled sense of their abilities on the job.  Both undermatching and overmatching can negatively effect a worker's motivation, performance, and satisfaction.  In addition to proper job matching, a foreman can impact a worker's expectancy by giving good instructions on the specific job and clarifying any problems that may arise.

2)  Worker Instrumentality:  A worker believes that a certain level of performance will result in a specific outcome or reward.  Workers develop perceptions that link intrinsic rewards such as challenge and accomplishment to extrinsic rewards such as increased pay and praise.  A foreman can influence instrumentality by organizing, assigning, and monitoring the work.  A foreman can praise, confer formal recognition, or offer constructive criticism.  All of these actions influence a worker's perceptions of how instrumental work is in determining the worker's outcomes.

As the construction industry grows in complexity so does the need for well trained foremen.  Foremen play a major role in the motivation, training, and well-being of construction workers.  This role includes leading the workers through the various challenges that arise on the site and seeing that the workers get their just rewards for a job well done.  In order for the construction industry to progress the proper selection and training of foremen must be implemented.